Transition to Schizophrenia Spectrum Disorder Following Emergency Department Visits Due to Substance Use With and Without Psychosis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Importance: Episodes of substance-induced psychosis are associated with increased risk of developing a schizophrenia spectrum disorder. However, there are limited data on the transition risk for substance use without psychosis. Objectives: To quantify the risk of transition to schizophrenia spectrum disorder following an incident emergency department (ED) visit for (1) substance-induced psychosis and (2) substance use without psychosis and to explore factors associated with transition. Design, Settings, and Participants: A population-based retrospective cohort study (January 2008 to March 2022) of all individuals, aged 14 to 65 years, in Ontario, Canada, with no history of a psychotic disorder. Individuals with incident ED visits for substance use with and without psychosis were compared with members of the general population. Main Outcomes and Measures: Transition to schizophrenia spectrum disorder using a chart-validated algorithm. Associations between ED visits for substance use and subsequent transition were estimated using cause-specific hazard models. Results: The study included 9 844 497 individuals, aged 14 to 65 years (mean [SD] age, 40.2 [14.7] years; 50.2% female) without a history of psychosis. There were 407 737 individuals with an incident ED visit for substance use, of which 13 784 (3.4%) ED visits were for substance-induced psychosis. Individuals with substance-induced psychosis were at a 163-fold (age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 163.2; 95% CI, 156.1-170.5) increased risk of transitioning, relative to the general population (3-year risk, 18.5% vs 0.1%). Individuals with an ED visit for substance use without psychosis had a lower relative risk of transitioning (aHR, 9.8; 95% CI, 9.5-10.2; 3-year risk, 1.4%), but incurred more than 3 times the absolute number of transitions (9969 vs 3029). Cannabis use had the highest transition risk among visits with psychosis (aHR, 241.6; 95% CI, 225.5-258.9) and the third-highest risk among visits without psychosis (aHR, 14.3; 95% CI, 13.5-15.2). Younger age and male sex were associated with a higher risk of transition, and the risk of male sex was greater in younger compared with older individuals, particularly for cannabis use. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this cohort study suggest that ED visits for substance use were associated with an increased risk of developing a schizophrenia spectrum disorder. Although substance-induced psychoses had a greater relative transition risk, substance use without psychosis was far more prevalent and resulted in a greater absolute number of transitions. Several factors were associated with higher transition risk, with implications for counseling and early intervention.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".