Hybrid Model of VMD and LSTM for Next-Hour Wind Speed Forecasting in a Hot Desert Climate
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Advancements in technology, policies, and cost reductions have led to rapid growth in wind power production. One of the major challenges in wind energy production is the instability of wind power generation due to weather changes. Efficient power grid management requires accurate power output forecasting. New wind energy forecasting methods based on deep learning are better than traditional methods, like numerical weather prediction, statistical models, and machine learning models. This is more true for short-term prediction. Since there is a relationship between methods, climates, and forecasting complexity, forecasting methods do not always perform the same depending on the climate and terrain of the data source. This paper proposes a novel model that combines the variational mode decomposition method with a long short-term memory model, developed for next-hour wind speed prediction in a hot desert climate, such as the climate in Saudi Arabia. We compared the proposed model performance to two other hybrid models, six deep learning models, and four machine learning models using different feature sets. Also, we tested the proposed model on data from different climates, Caracas and Toronto. The proposed model showed a forecast skill between 61% to 74% based on mean absolute error, 64% to 72% based on root mean square error, and 59% to 68% based on mean absolute percentage error for locations in Saudi Arabia.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".