Komparatif Prediksi Kebangkrutan Dengan Metode Altman Z-Score Dan Metode Zmijewski Pada PT. Sepatu Bata Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT This study aims to determine whether there is a potential for bankruptcy at PT. Shoes Bata Tbk and also to compare the use of the results of the two methods, the type of this research is descriptive qualitative, the population in this study is the financial statements of PT. Shoes Bata Tbk accessed through the website www.idx.co.id in the form of a statement of the company's financial position and profit and loss in 2021 in the 1st quarter to the 3rd quarter. with the 3rd quarter. The analysis technique used is by using the Altman Z-score and Zmijewski methods and comparing the results of using the two methods where the Z-Score method uses 4 ratios, namely working capital to total assets (X1), retained earnings to total assets (X2), earnings before interest to total assets (X3), and book value of equity to total debt (X4). Zmijewski who uses 3 ratios, namely net income to total assets (X1), total debt to total assets (X2), and current assets to current liabilities (X3). Based on the results of the Altman Z-Score analysis, the calculation results in the first quarter of 2021 to the third quarter of the company are predicted to be in good health or not bankrupt with a Z-Score value in the first quarter of 4.22, in the second quarter of 4 .98, and in the third quarter of 3.75. While the Zmijewski method predicts that the company is in a potentially bankrupt condition with the Zm value in the first quarter of 2.39, in the second quarter of 2.28 and in the third quarter of 3.26. From the comparison of the calculations of the two methods there are differences in results and the method that can be considered by the company in making decisions is the Zmijewski method. Keywords: Bankruptcy, Altman Z-Score, Zmijewski. ABSTRAK Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui adakah potensi kebangkrutan pada PT. Sepatu Bata Tbk dan serta untuk membandingkan penggunaan hasil dari kedua metode tersebut, jenis penelitian ini yaitu deskiptif kualitatif, populasi dalam penelitian ini berupa laporan keuangan PT. Sepatu Bata Tbk yang diakses melalui website www.idx.co.id dalam bentuk laporan posisi keuangan dan laba rugi perusahaan pada tahun 2021 di triwulan ke 1 sampai dengan triwulan ke 3. Sampel dalam penelitian ini berupa laporan keuangan pada tahun 2021 triwulan ke 1 sampai dengan triwulan ke 3. Teknik analisis yang digunakan yaitu dengan menggunakan metode altman Z-score dan Zmijewski dan membandingkan hasil dari penggunakan kedua metode tersebut dimana metode Z-Score menggunnakan 4 rasio yaitu modal kerja terhadapat total aset (X1), laba ditahan terhadap total aset (X2), laba sebelum bunga terhadap total aset (X3), dan nilai buku ekuitas terhadap total hutang (X4). Zmijewski yang menggunakan 3 rasio yaitu laba bersih terhadap total aset (X1), total hutang terhadap total aset (X2), dan aktiva lancar terhadap hutang lancar (X3). Berdasarkan hasil analisis Altman Z-Score di dapat hasil perhitungan pada tahun 2021 triwulan ke 1 sampai dengan triwulan ke 3 perusahaan di prediksi dalam kondisi sehat atau tidak bangkrut dengan nilai Z-Score pada triwulan 1 sebesar 4,22, pada triwulan ke 2 sebesar 4,98, dan pada triwulan ke 3 sebesar 3,75. Sedangkan metode Zmijewski memprediksi bahwa perusahaan dalam kondisi berpotensi mengalami kebangkrutan dengan nilai Zm pada triwulan 1 sebesar 2,39, pada triwulan ke 2 sebesar 2,28 dan pada triwulan ke 3 sebesar 3,26. Dari perbandingan perhitungan kedua metode tersebut terdapat perbedaan hasil dan metode yang dapat di pertimbangan oleh perusahaan dalam mengambil keputusan adalah metode Zmijewski. Kata kunci: Kebangkrutan, Altman Z-Score, Zmijewski.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.021 | 0.004 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".