Interactive effects of ambient fine particulate matter and ozone on daily mortality in 372 cities: two stage time series analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Objective To investigate potential interactive effects of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and ozone (O 3 ) on daily mortality at global level. Design Two stage time series analysis. Setting 372 cities across 19 countries and regions. Population Daily counts of deaths from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and respiratory disease. Main outcome measure Daily mortality data during 1994-2020. Stratified analyses by co-pollutant exposures and synergy index (>1 denotes the combined effect of pollutants is greater than individual effects) were applied to explore the interaction between PM 2.5 and O 3 in association with mortality. Results During the study period across the 372 cities, 19.3 million deaths were attributable to all causes, 5.3 million to cardiovascular disease, and 1.9 million to respiratory disease. The risk of total mortality for a 10 μg/m 3 increment in PM 2.5 (lag 0-1 days) ranged from 0.47% (95% confidence interval 0.26% to 0.67%) to 1.25% (1.02% to 1.48%) from the lowest to highest fourths of O 3 concentration; and for a 10 μg/m 3 increase in O 3 ranged from 0.04% (−0.09% to 0.16%) to 0.29% (0.18% to 0.39%) from the lowest to highest fourths of PM 2.5 concentration, with significant differences between strata (P for interaction <0.001). A significant synergistic interaction was also identified between PM 2.5 and O 3 for total mortality, with a synergy index of 1.93 (95% confidence interval 1.47 to 3.34). Subgroup analyses showed that interactions between PM 2.5 and O 3 on all three mortality endpoints were more prominent in high latitude regions and during cold seasons. Conclusion The findings of this study suggest a synergistic effect of PM 2.5 and O 3 on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, indicating the benefit of coordinated control strategies for both pollutants.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".