Modeling as Visioning: Exploring the Impact of Criminal Justice Reform on Health of Populations with Substance Use Disorders
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In the context of historic reckoning with the role of the criminal-legal system as a structural driver of health harms, there is mounting evidence that punitive drug policies have failed to prevent problematic drug use while fueling societal harms. In this explainer article, we discuss how simulation modeling provides a methodological framework to explore the potential outcomes (beneficial and harmful) of various drug policy alternatives, from incremental to radical. We discuss potential simulation modeling opportunities while calling for a more active role of simulation modeling in visioning and operationalizing transformative change. Highlights: This article discusses opportunities for simulation modeling in projecting health and economic impacts (beneficial and harmful) of drug-related criminal justice reforms.We call on modelers to explore radical interventions to reduce drug-related harm and model grand alternative futures in addition to more probable scenarios, with a goal of opening up policy discourse to these options.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it