Association of adiposity and its changes over time with COVID-19 risk in older adults with overweight/obesity and metabolic syndrome: a longitudinal evaluation in the PREDIMED-Plus cohort
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background Cross-sectionally, older age and obesity are associated with increased coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) risk. We assessed the longitudinal associations of baseline and changes in adiposity parameters with COVID-19 incidence in older adults at high cardiovascular risk. Methods This analysis included 6874 men and women (aged 55–75 years) with overweight/obesity and metabolic syndrome in the PREDIMED-Plus lifestyle intervention trial for cardiovascular risk reduction. Body weight, body-mass-index (BMI), waist circumference, waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), and a body shape index (ABSI) were measured at baseline and annual follow-up visits. COVID-19 was ascertained by an independent Event Committee until 31 December 2021. Cox regression models were fitted to evaluate the risk of COVID-19 incidence based on baseline adiposity parameters measured 5–6 years before the pandemic and their changes at the visit prior to censoring. Results At the time of censoring, 653 incident COVID-19 cases occurred. Higher baseline body weight, BMI, waist circumference, and WHtR were associated with increased COVID-19 risk. During the follow-up, every unit increase in body weight (HR adj (95%CI): 1.01 (1.00, 1.03)) and BMI (HR adj : 1.04 (1.003, 1.08)) was associated with increased COVID-19 risk. Conclusions In older adults with overweight/obesity, clinically significant weight loss may protect against COVID-19. Trial registration This study is registered at the International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial (ISRCT; http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN89898870 ).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.008 | 0.030 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".