Retrospective cohort analysis of outpatient antibiotic prescribing for community-acquired pneumonia in Canadian older adults
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: This retrospective cohort study is the first in North America to examine population-level appropriate antibiotic use for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in older adults, by agent, dose and duration. With the highest rates of CAP reported in the elderly populations, appropriate antibiotic use is essential to improve clinical outcomes. Given the ongoing crisis of antimicrobial resistance, understanding inappropriate antibiotic prescribing is integral to direct community stewardship efforts. METHODS: All outpatient primary care visits for CAP (aged ≥65 years) were identified using physician billing codes between January 1 2014 to December 31 2018 in British Columbia (BC) and Ontario (ON). Categories of prescribing were derived from existing literature, and constructed for clinical relevance using Canadian and international guidelines available during the study period. Categories were mutually exclusive and included: guideline adherent (first-line agent, adherent dose/duration), clinically appropriate (non-first line agent, presence of comorbidities), effective but unnecessary (first-line agent, excess dose/duration), undertreatment (first-line agent, subtherapeutic dose/duration), and not recommended (non-first line agent, absence of comorbidities). Proportions of prescribing were examined by category. Temporal trends in prescribing were examined using Poisson regression. RESULTS: A total of 436,441 episodes of CAP were identified, with 46% prescribed an antibiotic in BC, and 52% in Ontario. Guideline adherent prescribing was minimal for both provinces (BC: 2%; ON: 1%) however the largest magnitude of increase was reported in this category by the final study year (BC-Rate Ratio [RR]: 3.4, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 2.7-4.3; ON-RR: 4.62, 95% CI: 3.4-6.5). Clinically appropriate prescribing accounted for the most antibiotics issued, across all study years (BC: 61%; ON: 74%) (BC-RR: 0.8, 95% CI: 0.8-0.8; ON-RR: 0.9, 95% CI: 0.8-0.9). Excess duration of therapy was the hallmark characteristic for effective but unnecessary prescribing (BC: 92%; ON: 99%). The most common duration prescribed was 7 days, followed by 10. Not recommended prescribing was minimal in both provinces (BC: 4%; ON: 7%) and remained stable by the final study year (BC-RR: 1.1, 95% CI: 0.9-1.2; ON-RR: 0.9, 95% CI: 0.9-1.1). CONCLUSION: Three quarters of antibiotic prescribing for CAP was appropriate in Ontario, but only two thirds in BC. Shortening durations-in line with evidence for 3 to 5-day treatment presents a focused target for stewardship efforts.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.006 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".