Occurrence and Prediction of Flare After Tapering of Tumor Necrosis Factor Inhibitors in Patients With Axial Spondyloarthritis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Objective Patients with axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) in clinical remission tapered tumor necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi) therapy according to a clinical guideline. Over a 2-year follow-up period, we aimed to investigate flare frequency, dose at which flare occurred, type of flare, and predictors thereof. Methods Patients in clinical remission (Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index [BASDAI] < 40, physician global score < 40, and without disease activity the previous year) tapered TNFi to two-thirds the standard dose at baseline, half at week 16, one-third at week 32, and discontinued at week 48. Flares were defined as BASDAI flare (BASDAI ≥ 40 and change ≥ 20 since inclusion), and/or clinical flare (development of inflammatory back pain, musculoskeletal or extraarticular manifestations, and/or Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score [ASDAS] ≥ 0.9), and/or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) flare (≥ 2 new or worsened inflammatory lesions). Results Of 108 patients, 106 (99%) flared before 2-year follow-up: 29 patients (27%) at two-thirds standard dose, 21 (20%) at half dose, 29 (27%) at one-third dose, and 27 (25%) after discontinuation. Regarding type of flare, 105 (99%) had clinical flares, 25 (24%) had BASDAI flares, and 23 (29% of patients with MRI at flare available) had MRI flares. Forty-one patients (41%) fulfilled the Assessment of SpondyloArthritis international Society (ASAS) definition of clinically important worsening (≥ 0.9 increase since baseline). Higher baseline physician global score was an independent predictor of flare after tapering to two-thirds (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.04-1.41,P= 0.01). Changes in clinical and/or imaging variables in the 16 weeks prior to tapering did not predict flare. Conclusion Almost all (99%) patients with axSpA in clinical remission experienced flare during tapering to discontinuation, but in over half of these patients, flare did not occur before receiving one-third dose or less. Higher physician global score was an independent predictor of flare.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".