Bayesian workflow for the investigation of hierarchical classification models from tau-PET and structural MRI data across the Alzheimer’s disease spectrum
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Alzheimer's disease (AD) diagnosis in its early stages remains difficult with current diagnostic approaches. Though tau neurofibrillary tangles (NFTs) generally follow the stereotypical pattern described by the Braak staging scheme, the network degeneration hypothesis (NDH) has suggested that NFTs spread selectively along functional networks of the brain. To evaluate this, we implemented a Bayesian workflow to develop hierarchical multinomial logistic regression models with increasing levels of complexity of the brain from tau-PET and structural MRI data to investigate whether it is beneficial to incorporate network-level information into an ROI-based predictive model for the presence/absence of AD. Methods: F]MK-6240 tau-PET scans were acquired for 72 cognitive normal (CN), 23 mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and 18 Alzheimer's disease dementia subjects. We constructed the four following hierarchical Bayesian models in order of increasing complexity: (Model 1) a complete-pooling model with observations, (Model 2) a partial-pooling model with observations clustered within ROIs, (Model 3) a partial-pooling model with observations clustered within functional networks, and (Model 4) a partial-pooling model with observations clustered within ROIs that are also clustered within functional brain networks. We then investigated which of the models had better predictive performance given tau-PET or structural MRI data as an input, in the form of a relative annualized rate of change. Results: The Bayesian leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) estimate of the expected log pointwise predictive density (ELPD) results indicated that models 3 and 4 were substantially better than other models for both tau-PET and structural MRI inputs. For tau-PET data, model 3 was slightly better than 4 with an absolute difference in ELPD of 3.10 ± 1.30. For structural MRI data, model 4 was considerably better than other models with an absolute difference in ELPD of 29.83 ± 7.55 relative to model 3, the second-best model. Conclusion: Our results suggest that representing the data generating process in terms of a hierarchical model that encompasses both ROI-level and network-level heterogeneity leads to better predictive ability for both tau-PET and structural MRI inputs over all other model iterations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.021 | 0.038 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.012 | 0.004 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".