Climate Intervention Analysis using AI Model Guided by Statistical Physics Principles
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this study, we propose a solution to estimating system responses to external forcings or perturbations. We utilize the Fluctuation-Dissipation Theorem (FDT) from statistical physics to extract knowledge using an AI model that can rapidly produce scenarios for different external forcings by leveraging FDT and analyzing a large dataset from Earth System Models. Our model, AiBEDO, accurately captures the complex effects of radiation perturbations on global and regional surface climate, enabling faster exploration of the impacts of spatially-heterogenous climate forcings. We demonstrate its effectiveness by applying AiBEDO to Marine Cloud Brightening, a climate intervention technique, aiming to optimize cloud brightening patterns for regional climate targets and prevent climate tipping points. Our approach has broader applicability to other scientific disciplines with computationally demanding simulation models. Source code of AiBEDO framework is made available at https://github.com/kramea/cikm_aibedo. A sample dataset is made available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7597027. Additional data available upon request.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".