Multiscale stability of an intertidal kelp (<i>Postelsia palmaeformis</i>) near its northern range edge through a period of prolonged heatwaves
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Climate change, including gradual changes and extreme weather events, is driving widespread species losses and range shifts. These climatic changes are felt acutely in intertidal ecosystems, where many organisms live close to their thermal limits and experience the extremes of both marine and terrestrial environments. A recent series of multiyear heatwaves in the northeast Pacific Ocean might have impacted species even towards their cooler, northern range edges. Among them, the high intertidal kelp Postelsia palmaeformis has traits that could make it particularly vulnerable to climate change, but it is critically understudied. METHODS: In 2021 and 2022, we replicated in situ and aerial P. palmaeformis surveys that were conducted originally in 2006 and 2007, in order to assess the state of northern populations following recent heatwaves. Changes in P. palmaeformis distribution, extent, density and morphometrics were assessed between these two time points over three spatial scales, ranging from 250 m grid cells across the entire 167 km study region, to within grid cells and the individual patch. KEY RESULTS: We found evidence consistent with population stability at all three scales: P. palmaeformis remained present in all 250 m grid cells in the study region where it was previously found, and neither the extent within cells nor the patch density changed significantly between time points. However, there was evidence of slight distributional expansion, increased blade lengths and a shift to earlier reproductive timing. CONCLUSIONS: We suggest that apparent long-term stability of P. palmaeformis might be attributable to thermal buffering near its northern range edge and from the wave-exposed coastlines it inhabits, which may have decreased the impacts of heatwaves. Our results highlight the importance of multiscale assessments when examining changes within species and populations, in addition to the importance of dispersal capability and local conditions in regulating the responses of species to climate change.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".