Human development, population, and environmental burden: Historical perspective and a peek into the future
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The human species has continuously progressed in health, wealth, education, and population worldwide since industrialization. A measure of this advance, the Development Progress Index (DPI), is applied here to the world from 1770 to the present and then projected to the year 2100 for three shared socioeconomic pathways. Concurrently, our total environmental impact continues to grow with population and consumption. However, progress has been uneven across regions. While China is projected to outdistance the United States, India is projected to surpass both this century. The population keeps growing, and the average individual DPI-value has now grown enormously - by a factor of 17 since 1770. The environmental burden to sustain the human lifestyle is reflected by the world’s gross domestic product that has meanwhile grown by a factor of 155. If such human progress is to continue apace, the gross world product will be more than 2000 times higher by 2100. Already now a concern, the environmental impact is projected to grow five times larger by 2100. Human environmental impact needs a measure and attention.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.007 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".