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Record W4387976375 · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-3492090/v1

Data-Driven Analysis: A Comprehensive Study of CPS Case Outcomes in 42 English Counties (2014-2018) with R Analytics

2023· preprint· en· W4387976375 on OpenAlexaff
Md Aminul Islam, Anindya Nag, Sayeda Mayesha Yousuf, Bhupesh Kumar Mishra, Md Abu Sufian, Hirak Mondal

Bibliographic record

VenueResearch Square · 2023
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicCrime Patterns and Interventions
Canadian institutionsWestern University
FundersUniversity of Gloucestershire
KeywordsAutoregressive integrated moving averageComputer scienceCluster analysisCrime analysisAnalyticsData miningData scienceProcess (computing)Data analysisHierarchical clusteringTime seriesArtificial intelligenceMachine learningPsychology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract This scholarly work thoroughly examines a dataset of criminal activities, specifically emphasizing the process of data pre-processing, cleansing, and subsequent analytical procedures. The dataset utilized in this study is obtained from the Crown Prosecution Service Case Outcomes by Principal Offense Category (POC), covering the period from 2014 to 2018 and including forty-two counties in England. The initial stage of data pre-processing encompasses a systematic sequence of procedures, which includes deleting superfluous percentage columns, arranging the data in chronological order, aligning the columns appropriately, removing special characters, and converting the data types as necessary. Appropriate measures are taken to address missing data to protect the integrity of the dataset. The descriptive analytics section examines multiple variables, encompassing county, year, month, area, and crime categories such as homicide, sexual offenses, burglary, etc. Clustering techniques, such as K-means and Hierarchical clustering, are utilized to identify underlying patterns within the dataset. Classification models such as Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Random Forest are utilized to forecast case outcomes. This is facilitated by employing thorough reporting techniques and doing Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. Time series analysis, namely using ARIMA modeling, is employed to comprehend the temporal patterns present in crime data. The paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the performance of ARIMA models, offering hypotheses, model descriptions, accuracy matrices, and visualizations as evaluation tools.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.007
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.035
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.030
Threshold uncertainty score0.059

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0070.035
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.001
Bibliometrics0.0030.005
Science and technology studies0.0000.001
Scholarly communication0.0010.001
Open science0.0010.001
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.397
GPT teacher head0.531
Teacher spread0.134 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations1
Published2023
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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