Predicting COVID-19 Hospital Stays with Kolmogorov–Gabor Polynomials: Charting the Future of Care
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Optimal allocation of ward beds is crucial given the respiratory nature of COVID-19, which necessitates urgent hospitalization for certain patients. Several governments have leveraged technology to mitigate the pandemic’s adverse impacts. Based on clinical and demographic variables assessed upon admission, this study predicts the length of stay (LOS) for COVID-19 patients in hospitals. The Kolmogorov–Gabor polynomial (a.k.a., Volterra functional series) was trained using regularized least squares and validated on a dataset of 1600 COVID-19 patients admitted to Khorshid Hospital in the central province of Iran, and the five-fold internal cross-validated results were presented. The Volterra method provides flexibility, interactions among variables, and robustness. The most important features of the LOS prediction system were inflammatory markers, bicarbonate (HCO3), and fever—the adj. R2 and Concordance Correlation Coefficients were 0.81 [95% CI: 0.79–0.84] and 0.94 [0.93–0.95], respectively. The estimation bias was not statistically significant (p-value = 0.777; paired-sample t-test). The system was further analyzed to predict “normal” LOS ≤ 7 days versus “prolonged” LOS > 7 days groups. It showed excellent balanced diagnostic accuracy and agreement rate. However, temporal and spatial validation must be considered to generalize the model. This contribution is hoped to pave the way for hospitals and healthcare providers to manage their resources better.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".