A deterministic compartmental model for investigating the impact of escapees on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The recent outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has devastated many parts of the globe. Non-pharmaceutical interventions are the widely available measures to combat and control the COVID-19 pandemic. There is great concern over the rampant unaccounted cases of individuals skipping the border during this critical period in time. We develop a deterministic compartmental model to investigate the impact of escapees (individuals who evade mandatory quarantine) on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. A suitable Lyapunov function has shown that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, provided R0<1. We performed a global sensitivity analysis using the Latin-hyper cube sampling method and partial rank correlation coefficients to determine the most influential model parameters on the short and long-term dynamics of the pandemic to minimize uncertainties associated with our variables and parameters. Results confirm a positive correlation between the number of escapees and the reported COVID-19 cases. It is shown that escapees are primarily responsible for the rapid increase in local transmissions. Also, the results from sensitivity analysis show that an increase in governmental role actions and a reduction in the illegal immigration rate will help to control and contain the disease spread.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".