An Explanation for the Metric Dependence of the Midlatitude Jet‐Waviness Change in Response to Polar Warming
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Arctic amplification has been proposed to promote temperature extremes by slowing the midlatitude jet and increasing the amplitude of its meanders. Observational and modeling studies have used a variety of metrics to quantify jet waviness. These studies show conflicting changes in jet waviness depending on the metric used and period examined. Here, we evaluate common metrics for dry idealized model simulations in which we apply polar warming of varying depth and meridional extent. In all simulations, polar warming increases the spatial extent of jet meanders, but reduces the magnitudes of ridges and troughs within the wave. As a result, geometric and anomaly‐amplitude measures of jet waviness can yield opposing responses. This contrast between metrics is particularly evident when warming extends into the midlatitudes. In all simulations, midlatitude temperature anomalies weaken as the poles warm, suggesting that a wavier jet need not imply stronger temperature extremes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".