Bayesian inference elucidates fault-system anatomy and resurgent earthquakes induced by continuing saltwater disposal
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract An earthquake sequence in western Canada exhibits resurgent aftershocks, possibly in response to persistent, post-mainshock saltwater disposal. Here, we reduce uncertainty in mainshock source parameters with joint inference of interferometric synthetic aperture radar and seismic waveform data, showing that the mainshock nucleated at about 5-km depth, propagating up-dip toward the injection source, and arresting at about 2-km depth. With precise hypocenter relocations and Bayesian inference, we reveal that four subparallel faults were reactivated, likely part of a regional, basement-rooted graben system. The reactivated faults appear to be truncated by a conjugate fault that is misoriented for slip in the present-day stress regime. The nearest saltwater disposal well targets a permeable Devonian reef in direct contact with Precambrian basement, atop a ridge-like uplift. Our observations show that a fault system can be activated more than a decade after saltwater disposal initiation, and continued disposal may lead to a resurgence of seismicity.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".