Trends in prevalence of fractures among adults in the United States, 1999–2020: a population-based study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Population data that examines recent national trends in the prevalence of fractures are lacking in the United States (US). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Analyses were based on 1999-2020 data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Primary outcomes included the prevalence of hip, wrist, and vertebral fractures among adults aged greater than or equal to 50 years. Changes in the prevalence over time were determined by joinpoint regression analysis. The authors also described the variation by fracture subtypes, sociodemographic characteristics, and their combination. RESULTS: For adults aged greater than or equal to 50 years in NHANES 2017-March 2020, the authors estimated that there was 2.6 million Americans with hip fractures, 14.6 million Americans with wrist fractures, and 5.2 million Americans with vertebral fractures. The prevalence of wrist fractures significantly increased from 8.7% (7.4-9.9%) in 1999-2000 to 12.8% (11.6-14.1%) in 2017-March 2020 among adults aged greater than or equal to 50 years ( P for trend=0.04); significant increases were also observed in fractures that occurred at age less than 50 years, non-Hispanic White, high family income groups, and several combination subgroups (e.g. fractures occurred at age <50 years among women). The prevalence of vertebral fractures increased from 2.2% (1.7-2.8%) in 1999-2000 to 4.6% (3.7-5.5%) in 2017-March 2020 among adults aged greater than or equal to 50 years ( P for trend=0.02); significant increases were also observed in 50-64 years, women, non-Hispanic White, high family income groups and several combination subgroups (e.g. fractures that occurred at age <50 years among women). The authors did not observe significant trend changes in the prevalence of hip fractures among adults aged greater than or equal to 50 years between 1999 and 2020. CONCLUSION: The estimated prevalence of wrist and vertebral fractures significantly increased among US adults aged greater than or equal to 50 years from 1999 to 2020, although hip fractures did not significantly change.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".