Spatially heterogeneous effect of climate warming on the Arctic land ice
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. Global warming has already substantially altered the Arctic cryosphere. Due to the Arctic warming amplification, the temperature is increasing more strongly, leading to pervasive changes in this area. Recent years were notably marked by melt records over the Greenland Ice Sheet, while other regions such as Svalbard seem to remain less influenced. This raises the question of the current state of the Greenland Ice Sheet and the various ice caps in the Arctic for which few studies are available. Here, we run the regional climate model (RCM) Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) at a resolution of 6 km over four different domains covering all Arctic land ice to produce a unified surface mass balance product from 1950 to the present day. We also compare our results to large-scale indices to better understand the heterogeneity of the evolutions across the Arctic and their links to recent climate change. We find a sharp decrease of surface mass balance (SMB) over the western Arctic (Canada and Greenland) in relationship with the atmospheric blocking situations that have become more frequent in summer, resulting in a 41 % increase of the melt rate since 1950. This increase is not seen over the Russian Arctic permanent ice areas, where melt rates have increased by only 3 % on average, illustrating a heterogeneity in the Arctic SMB response to global warming.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".