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Record W4388448446 · doi:10.52843/cassyni.twgt9r

Flexible hidden Markov models using hmmTMB and applications in ecology

2023· preprint· en· W4388448446 on OpenAlexaff
Théo Michelot

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldComputer Science
TopicBayesian Methods and Mixture Models
Canadian institutionsDalhousie University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsHidden Markov modelCovariateComputer scienceEcologyMarkov modelClass (philosophy)Markov chainParametric statisticsEconometricsData scienceMachine learningArtificial intelligenceStatisticsMathematicsBiology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

I will present hidden Markov models, a general class of stochastic processes widely used in many areas (including ecology, financial analysis, medical statistics, etc.). In particular, I will explain how the parameters of interest can be specified as flexible functions of covariates, possibly using non-parametric relationships and random effects, to answer complex scientific questions. I will present the R package hmmTMB, which implements this approach, and I will demonstrate its use for the analysis of animal movement data.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Methods · Consensus signal: Methods
Teacher disagreement score0.452
Threshold uncertainty score0.871

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0010.003
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.082
GPT teacher head0.333
Teacher spread0.251 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designTheoretical or conceptual
Domainnot available
GenreMethods

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2023
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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