Passenger Flow Path Prediction Based on Urban Rail Transit AFC Data: An Example of Chengdu, China
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The development of the automatic fare collection (AFC) systems provides significant support for predicting passenger flow on urban rail transit. This paper extracts passenger travel patterns using AFC data on urban rail transit in Chengdu, China, over a one-month period. Passengers are divided into two categories based on their travel habits and data mining models, and multinomial logit (MNL) models are separately used to predict their destinations. Furthermore, a two-way search algorithm is developed to search the optimal paths between origin-destination (OD) pairs by considering interchange constraints. Start a path search through the origin point and destination point, respectively, until the shortest path is found. The maximum effectiveness of a path is measured by travel time, interchange time, and the number of interchanges between the OD pairs. Finally, the validity of the proposed passenger flow path prediction method is verified by using the AFC data of Chengdu metropolitan rail transit from April 2018.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".