Subsurface temperature change attributed to climate change at the northern latitude site of Kapuskasing, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Subsurface temperatures have been measured in different regions of the world, usually near the surface up to a depth of about a hundred meters. In this work a forward model calculation for a Northern Hemisphere soil temperature site at Kapuskasing, Canada, is presented, employing the solution of the differential equation of heat conduction through a semi-infinite homogeneous solid, subject to surface boundary conditions determined by surface air temperature. In this way, a detailed analysis is made of the subsurface temperature as a function of ground depth and for the time interval ranging from 1970 to the future (including the next century), for different scenarios of climate change. From these results, it was possible to determine the following characteristic quantities: (a) the depth where the surface perturbation (practically) finishes (in the range of about 180-200 m); (b) the depth where the subsurface temperature changes its slope from negative to positive; (c) the temperature change at the surface for the years where data exist; (d) the thermal gradient at steady state in the starting year (1880); (e) the temperature differences extrapolated at surface and at a 20 m depth, this last value corresponding to the depth at which seasonal and diurnal temperature variations are negligible; (f) the heat flow at surface to the inner part of the soil attributed to climate change, and (g) the temperature changes at surface for the 100 years interval (1980-2080) and mainly for the next century (2080-2180), for each site and for each IPCC Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario. As an example, the impact of the change in mean annual soil temperature due to global warming in near-surface geothermal energy is described.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".