Bibliographic record
Abstract
Psychologists have identified heuristics and biases that can cause people to make assumptions about factors that contribute to the success of individuals and firms, whose outcomes may have actually resulted primarily from randomness. Yet the interpretation of these biases becomes ambiguous when they represent reasonable cognitive shortcuts that offer certain advantages. This paper addresses this ambiguity by presenting four versions (weak, semi-weak, semi-strong, strong) of a normative theory of luck that integrates insights from psychology with the chance model approach to predict the circumstances under which performance non-monotonicity occurs: higher performance may not only indicate greater luck, but also lower expected merit or quality. The semi-strong version is illustrated by examining the decoupling of citations of academic publications and their impact, illuminating when higher citations indicate lower quality. We conclude by discussing the broader implications of a normative theory of luck, emphasizing strategies to address situations where people mistake luck for skill.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.012 | 0.031 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.018 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.006 | 0.008 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".