Modeling personalized heart rate response to exercise and environmental factors with wearables data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Heart rate (HR) response to workout intensity reflects fitness and cardiorespiratory health. Physiological models have been developed to describe such heart rate dynamics and characterize cardiorespiratory fitness. However, these models have been limited to small studies in controlled lab environments and are challenging to apply to noisy—but ubiquitous—data from wearables. We propose a hybrid approach that combines a physiological model with flexible neural network components to learn a personalized, multidimensional representation of fitness. The physiological model describes the evolution of heart rate during exercise using ordinary differential equations (ODEs). ODE parameters are dynamically derived via a neural network connecting personalized representations to external environmental factors, from area topography to weather and instantaneous workout intensity. Our approach efficiently fits the hybrid model to a large set of 270,707 workouts collected from wearables of 7465 users from the Apple Heart and Movement Study. The resulting model produces fitness representations that accurately predict full HR response to exercise intensity in future workouts, with a per-workout median error of 6.1 BPM [4.4–8.8 IQR]. We further demonstrate that the learned representations correlate with traditional metrics of cardiorespiratory fitness, such as VO 2 max (explained variance 0.81 ± 0.003). Lastly, we illustrate how our model is naturally interpretable and explicitly describes the effects of environmental factors such as temperature and humidity on heart rate, e.g., high temperatures can increase heart rate by 10%. Combining physiological ODEs with flexible neural networks can yield interpretable, robust, and expressive models for health applications.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".