Flood Forecasting Using Hybrid LSTM and GRU Models with Lag Time Preprocessing
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Climate change and urbanization have increased the frequency of floods worldwide, resulting in substantial casualties and property loss. Accurate flood forecasting can offer governments early warnings about impending flood disasters, giving them a chance to evacuate and save lives. Deep learning is used in flood forecasting to improve the timeliness and accuracy of flood water level predictions. While various deep learning models similar to Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) have achieved notable results, they have complex structures with low computational efficiency, and often lack generalizability and stability. This study applies a spatiotemporal Attention Gated Recurrent Unit (STA-GRU) model for flood prediction to increase the models’ computing efficiency. Another salient feature of our methodology is the incorporation of lag time during data preprocessing before the training of the model. Notably, for 12-h forecasting, the STA-GRU model’s R-squared (R2) value increased from 0.8125 to 0.9215. Concurrently, the model manifested reduced root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) metrics. For a more extended 24-h forecasting, the R2 value of the STA-GRU model improved from 0.6181 to 0.7283, accompanied by diminishing RMSE and MAE values. Seven typical deep learning models—the LSTM, the Convolutional Neural Networks LSTM (CNNLSTM), the Convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM), the spatiotemporal Attention Long Short-Term Memory (STA-LSTM), the GRU, the Convolutional Neural Networks GRU (CNNGRU), and the STA-GRU—are compared for water level prediction. Comparative analysis delineated that the use of the STA-GRU model and the application of the lag time pre-processing method significantly improved the reliability and accuracy of flood forecasting.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".