Arterial Hypertension and Its Consequences Are the Main Predictors of Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background and Purpose. Embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) is a subcategory of cryptogenic stroke with high frequency of occurrence and insufficient understanding its risk factors leads to the lack of determined strategies for primary/secondary prevention. This study was aimed to identify the most prominent predictors of the ESUS and to generate the overall predictive model. Methods. We performed a hospital-based prospective cohort study with 1,317 enrolled participants. We compared patients and healthy volunteers according to the main demographic, anthropometric parameters, stroke risk factors, comorbidities, and data of clinical and instrumental examination. In order to balance the study and the control groups for age and sex, the propensity score matching was performed. In order to generate the overall predictive model, a multivariate analysis was performed using the binary logistic regression method. Results. The following predictors of ESUS were identified in current study: arterial hypertension (AH); increased heart rate and pulmonary arterial systolic pressure (PASP); the presence of conduction disturbance; the enlargement of left, right atrium, and left ventricle end-systolic length; increased intima–media thickness (IMT) in right and left common carotid artery (CCA); lowered Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoСA) cognitive scale score; the presence of subcortical microbleeds; central brain atrophy; the larger size of third ventricle; and the higher medial temporal lobe atrophy (MTA) score. The following risk factors were included in the final predictive model: the presence of AH ( <a:math xmlns:a="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M1"> <a:mi>p</a:mi> <a:mo><</a:mo> <a:mn>0.0005</a:mn> </a:math> ; OR = 12.98 (95% CI: 4.53–37.21)) and PASP ( <c:math xmlns:c="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M2"> <c:mi>p</c:mi> <c:mo>=</c:mo> <c:mn>0.018</c:mn> </c:math> ; OR = 1.13 (95% CI: 1.02–1.25)) and male sex ( <e:math xmlns:e="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M3"> <e:mi>p</e:mi> <e:mo>=</e:mo> <e:mn>0.046</e:mn> </e:math> ; OR = 2.771 (95% CI: 1.017–7.555)). The Nagelkerke’s pseudo-R-squared value was 0.404 and the significance of the Hosmer–Lemeshow test was 0.733, which indicate the goodness of the final logistic regression model. Conclusions. We propose that AH and its consequences are the main predictors of ESUS. The results of this study emphasize the importance of AH control for primary and secondary prevention of ESUS.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it