Observational and modelling analysis of Canada’s only F5/EF5 tornado
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Canada’s first and only F5/EF5 tornado associated with a supercell touched down near Elie, Manitoba in the late afternoon of 22 June 2007. An observational and numerical simulation analysis with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was undertaken to characterize the pre-storm environment and processes leading to storm initiation. WRF sufficiently reproduced the synoptic and mesoscale features, including a supercell-like storm in the region of interest, and supplemented available observations. Synthesis of observational and simulation data suggests that the environment near Elie immediately before storm initiation was primed for tornadic supercells, with large most-unstable and mixed-layer convective available potential energy (4000 J kg^-1) and sufficient vertical shear (effective bulk wind shear 40 kt; effective storm-relative helicity >200 m2 s^-2). Despite enhancement owing to a cold pool left behind by passing early-afternoon convection, shear remained weaker than those typically found in other North American significant tornadic supercell events. The interaction between a surface trough and convective boundary-layer thermals was the primary triggering mechanism of the Elie supercell. The former appeared to be associated with a low pressure arising from the juxtaposition of lower-troposphere cyclonic differential vorticity advection and lee troughing over the western Red River Valley. More observational analysis and numerical sensitivity experiments are required to better diagnose Manitoba terrain’s contribution to the Elie supercell initiation.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".