Concussion Characteristics in the National Hockey League Before and After the Introduction of Rule 48
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Importance: A rule prohibiting a direct hit to the lateral side of the head (ie, Rule 48-Illegal Check to the Head) was introduced in the National Hockey League (NHL) in the 2010-2011 season and refined in the 2011-2012 season to widen the application to include direct contact to all areas of the head. Objective: To compare the incidence and proportion of concussions that occurred following hits to the head before and after the implementation of Rule 48. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study used a before and after design to evaluate concussions among NHL players in regular season games. Data from the 4 seasons preceding the implementation of Rule 48 (2006-2007 to 2009-2010) were compared with data from 5 seasons following its implementation (2014-2015 to 2018-2019). Data were analyzed from October 31, 2021, to November 30, 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: The incidence and relative proportion of concussion characteristics and mechanisms before and after the introduction of Rule 48. Results: In the analysis of 688 concussions for NHL seasons spanning 2006 to 2010 (n = 231) and 2014 to 2019 (n = 457), there was an overall increase in the incidence of concussion between the 2 time frames, although the incidence of concussions due to hits to the lateral aspect of the head decreased from 1.6/100 games to 1.0/100 games (estimated difference, 0.6/100 games [90% credible interval (CrI), 0.30/100 games to 0.90/100 games). There was also a reduction of 18.8 (90% CrI, 13.0-23.7) percentage points in the proportion of concussions due to hits to the lateral aspect of the head from 80 of 231 concussions (34.6%) to 61 of 457 concussions (13.3%). The incidence of concussions following hits to the head from body checks using the shoulder, arm, and glove was similar before and following the implementation of Rule 48. However, the proportion was reduced 14.7 percentage points from 113 of 231 concussions (48.9%) before to 149 of 457 concussions (32.6%) after implementation of Rule 48 (90% CrI of the difference, 8.9-20.7 percentage points). Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this cohort study of NHL players suggest that after the introduction of Rule 48, the incidence rate and proportion of concussions from contact to the lateral aspect of the head decreased, as did the proportion of concussions following direct hits to the head.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".