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Record W4389012055 · doi:10.1007/s10479-023-05672-0

How do weather risks in Canada and the United States affect global commodity prices? Implications for the decarbonisation process

2023· article· en· W4389012055 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Chi Keung Marco Lau, Yifei Cai, Giray Gözgör

Bibliographic record

VenueAnnals of Operations Research · 2023
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicMarket Dynamics and Volatility
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsCommodityVector autoregressionCrude oilFutures contractEconomicsAgricultureExtreme weatherOil priceNatural resource economicsAgricultural economicsEnvironmental scienceClimate changeEconometricsFinancial economicsMonetary economicsFinance

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract Given that the probability of extreme weather has been dramatically increasing, this study contributes to the existing literature by bridging the relation between weather risks and global commodity prices with a secondary dataset (e.g., weather risks of Canada and the United States, agricultural raw materials price, gold price, and crude oil price). The results from the vector autoregression model and impulse response functions show that rising weather risks increase the price of agricultural raw materials and gold. However, the negative impact of weather risks on the crude oil price is found. Finally, the paper discusses the findings' potential implications (e.g., developing decarbonised supply chains) for decreasing weather risks' effects on commodity market uncertainties.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.004
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.113
Threshold uncertainty score0.228

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.004
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.002
Science and technology studies0.0010.001
Scholarly communication0.0020.001
Open science0.0000.001
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.265
GPT teacher head0.425
Teacher spread0.160 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations10
Published2023
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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