Patient clusters identified by machine learning from a pooled analysis of the clinical development programme of secukinumab in psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis and psoriatic arthritis with axial manifestations
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To identify patient clusters based on baseline demographics and clinical indicators. METHODS: Pooled baseline demographics and clinical data of secukinumab-treated patients from ten Phase III studies in psoriatic arthritis (PsA; FUTURE 1-5 and MAXIMISE), ankylosing spondylitis (AS; MEASURE 1-4), were analysed by machine learning (ML) algorithms. The longitudinal responses of secukinumab 300 mg versus 150 mg were investigated across the clusters and three clinical indicators of tender joints, swollen joints and enthesitis. RESULTS: 3907 patients were grouped into eight distinct clusters based on patient demographics and baseline clinical characteristics. Patients with PsA and axial manifestations (MAXIMISE) were overrepresented in clusters 6-8. Patients in cluster 6 (mean age 48 years; 46% male) were overweight with pronounced psoriasis, higher articular burden in knees, shoulders, elbows and wrists. Patients in cluster 7 (mean age 47 years; 53% male) were less overweight with lower polyarticular joint counts and tenderness of the joints of the feet, wrists and hands. Patients in cluster 8 were predominantly with AS (mean age 43 years; 64% male) with a mean body mass index of 27.3 kg/m2, oligoarthritis and high prevalence of spinal pain. Patients with PsA (FUTURE) were overrepresented in clusters 1-5. Longitudinal analysis showed improvements with secukinumab 300 mg versus 150 mg in clusters 6 and 8 for tender joint counts, and cluster 7 for swollen joint counts. CONCLUSIONS: PsA clusters obtained by ML in pooled dataset indicate phenotypical heterogeneity of patients with PsA and axial manifestations and overlapping features across the spondyloarthritis spectrum.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".