Copy-number variants and polygenic risk for intelligence confer risk for autism spectrum disorder irrespective of their effects on cognitive ability
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Rare copy number variants (CNVs) and polygenic risk for intelligence (PRS-IQ) both confer risk for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) but have opposing effects on cognitive ability. The field has struggled to disentangle the effects of these two classes of genomic variants on cognitive ability from their effects on ASD risk, in part because previous studies did not include controls with cognitive measures. We aim to investigate the impact of these genomic variants on ASD risk while adjusting for their known effects on cognitive ability. In a cohort of 8,426 subjects with ASD and 169,804 controls with cognitive assessments, we found that rare coding CNVs and PRS-IQ increased ASD risk, even after adjusting for their effects on cognitive ability. Bottom decile PRS-IQ and CNVs both decreased cognitive ability but had opposing effects on ASD risk. Models combining both classes of variants showed that the effects of rare CNVs and PRS-IQ on ASD risk and cognitive ability were largely additive, further suggesting that risk for ASD is conferred independently from its effects on cognitive ability. Despite imparting mostly additive effects on ASD risk, rare CNVs and PRS-IQ showed opposing effects on core and associated features and developmental history among subjects with ASD. Our findings suggest that cognitive ability itself may not be the factor driving the underlying risk for ASD conferred by these two classes of genomic variants. In other words, ASD risk and cognitive ability may be two distinct manifestations of CNVs and PRS-IQ. This study also highlights the challenge of understanding how genetic risk for ASD maps onto its dimensional traits.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".