A Frequentist Approach to Individual-Level Models for Modelling Epidemics
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Individual Level Models, or ILMs for short, have been studied and improved on in the last decade in order to model different large-scale epidemiological events.These models use covariate information in order to determine how probable an individual is to get sick.In order to make inferences about disease dynamics, parameters must be estimated in order to dictate how quickly individuals can get infected by some disease.Under the traditional framework of this type of model, a Bayesian approach is used in order to estimate the parameters of the model.In this thesis, we move away from this approach and look at the model through a frequentist lens.Using a reasonable asymptotic framework that we established, we show that in the univariate case, the maximum likelihood estimator is unbiased and has a normal limiting distribution.We use these results to construct confidence intervals for our parameter and determine its significance.This thesis would also not have been possible without the financial support
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.021 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".