Gold as a Hedge for Inflation: An Event-Study of Abnormal Inflationary Periods in the Past Five Decades
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Historically gold and inflation have had a weak positive correlation; therefore, gold has been considered an inflationary hedge and a “safe haven” in times of high inflation for investors. An event-study of five periods with deviant inflation in the past five decades were examined in this study to determine the abnormal return (AR) of gold in comparison to the U.S. stock market (S&P 500). These findings concluded a deviation in market perception regarding the inflationary hedge that gold has historically adhered to have. Specifically, the recent Russia-Ukraine conflict caused a large shift in investors' sentiment of investing into gold as a hedge, as the event window concluded significant negative abnormal returns. Simultaneously the U.S. experienced economic factors that would historically have caused gold prices to increase, yet the opposite occurred. Although the Ukraine conflict's final outcome is still unknown, early stage-data shows how gold could potentially not be considered a “safe haven” or an inflationary hedge today, given many dynamic factors ruling the world.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".