A Hybrid Deep Learning Approach for Crude Oil Price Prediction
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Crude oil is one of the world’s most important commodities. Its price can affect the global economy, as well as the economies of importing and exporting countries. As a result, forecasting the price of crude oil is essential for investors. However, crude oil price tends to fluctuate considerably during significant world events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical conflicts. In this paper, we propose a deep learning model for forecasting the crude oil price of one-step and multi-step ahead. The model extracts important features that impact crude oil prices and uses them to predict future prices. The prediction model combines convolutional neural networks (CNN) with long short-term memory networks (LSTM). We compared our one-step CNN–LSTM model with other LSTM models, the CNN model, support vector machine (SVM), and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Also, we compared our multi-step CNN–LSTM model with LSTM, CNN, and the time series encoder–decoder model. Extensive experiments were conducted using short-, medium-, and long-term price data of one, five, and ten years, respectively. In terms of accuracy, the proposed model outperformed existing models in both one-step and multi-step predictions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".