Mpox outbreak control indicators used in Ontario, Canada: May 21–December 10, 2022
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Since May 2022, over 91 000 cases of mpox have been reported globally with the majority of cases occurring among adult males who identify as gay, bisexual, or men who have sex with men (gbMSM). Given the rapid emergence of the global mpox outbreak, many public health authorities did not have established mpox outbreak control indicators or criteria for declaring an mpox outbreak over. Expert consensus in Ontario, Canada, set thresholds for five key indicators of mpox outbreak control as follows: estimated number of currently infectious cases < 5; effective reproductive number < 1.0; doubling time > 42 days; weekly test positivity < 5%; and sporadic non-gbMSM cases (i.e., female and pediatric cases). Once all indicators were achieved, a 52-day period based on two incubation periods for mpox and a 10-day reporting delay was employed to monitor for indicator stability. After all five indicators remained at expected levels, the mpox outbreak in Ontario was declared over on December 10, 2022. Despite current low levels of mpox activity globally, some jurisdictions may benefit from utilizing or modifying these outbreak control indicators during a future localized mpox outbreak.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".