Monetary policy and inflation expectations: impact and causal analysis of heterogeneous economic agents’ expectations in South Africa
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study employs a Vector Error Correction (VEC) model to investigate the dynamic relationship between changes in monetary policy and inflation expectations within various sectors.The analysis encompasses data from the financial, business, and trade union sectors, spanning the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2022.Results indicate that trade unions exhibit sensitivity to previous changes in the repo rate.In the long term, monetary policy influences inflation expectations within the financial sector.In contrast, elevated repo rates in the business sector correlate with diminished expectations, subsequently impacting wage dynamics.Granger causality tests establish a significant link between repo rate shifts and inflation expectations in the business and trade union sectors.The study advances the understanding of diverse sector responses to monetary policy's impact on inflation expectations, and implement sector-specific policy adjustments that consider the unique dynamics of each sector, ensuring a more targeted and effective response.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it