A Dual-View Approach for Multistation Short-Term Passenger Flow Prediction in Bus Transit Systems
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Timely and accurate prediction of bus passenger flow plays a crucial role in uncovering real-time traffic demand, presenting an essential and formidable challenge in the realm of bus scheduling and management. The extensive application of deep learning methods in transit passenger flow prediction can be attributed to their exceptional ability to effectively capture spatiotemporal features, resulting in superior performance. However, prevailing deep learning models in transit passenger flow prediction tend to ignore the data enhancement. Additionally, the predominant focus on a single station in the prediction task presents challenges in effectively capturing the spatiotemporal features of the entire network. A model named TSD-ST is proposed to better accomplish the task of predicting short-term transit passenger flow at multistation. The TSD-ST model leverages time series decomposition for data enhancement. Simultaneously, in addition to considering the adjacency graph, the similarity of all the stations of the entire transit network is also considered and uses multigraph convolution and graph fusion modules. This approach enables the TSD-ST model to effectively capture spatiotemporal dependencies. Experiments based on real-world bus transit datasets confirm that the TSD-ST model shows better performance in prediction tasks at 30-min, 60-min, and 90-min time scales, with an average improvement of 21.87%. The effectiveness of each component has been verified through ablation experiments.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".