Anticipating undiagnosed asthma in symptomatic adults with normal pre- and post-bronchodilator spirometry: a decision tool for bronchial challenge testing
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background Some patients with asthma demonstrate normal spirometry and remain undiagnosed without further testing. Objective To determine clinical predictors of asthma in symptomatic adults with normal spirometry, and to generate a tool to help clinicians decide who should undergo bronchial challenge testing (BCT). Methods Using random-digit dialling and population-based case-finding, we recruited adults from the community with respiratory symptoms and no previous history of diagnosed lung disease. Participants with normal pre- and post-bronchodilator spirometry subsequently underwent BCT. Asthma was diagnosed in those with symptoms and a methacholine provocative concentration (PC20) of < 8 mg/ml. Sputum and blood eosinophils, and exhaled nitric oxide were measured. Univariate analyses identified potentially predictive variables, which were then used to construct a multivariable logistic regression model to predict asthma. Model sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) were calculated. Results Of 132 symptomatic individuals with normal spirometry, 34 (26%) had asthma. Of those ultimately diagnosed with asthma, 33 (97%) answered ‘yes’ to a question asking whether they experienced cough, chest tightness or wheezing provoked by exercise or cold air. Other univariate predictors of asthma included female sex, pre-bronchodilator FEV1 percentage predicted, and percent positive change in FEV1 post bronchodilator. A multivariable model containing these predictive variables yielded an AUC of 0.82 (95% CI: 0.72–0.91), a sensitivity of 82%, and a specificity of 66%. The model was used to construct a nomogram to advise clinicians which patients should be prioritized for BCT. Conclusions Four readily available patient characteristics demonstrated a high sensitivity and AUC for predicting undiagnosed asthma in symptomatic adults with normal pre- and post-bronchodilator spirometry. These characteristics can potentially help clinicians to decide which individuals with normal spirometry should be investigated with bronchial challenge testing. However, further prospective validation of our decision tool is required.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.016 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".