Large isotopic shift in volcanic plume CO2 prior to a basaltic paroxysmal explosion
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Carbon dioxide is a key gas to monitor at volcanoes because its fluctuation relative to other gases can be detected prior to eruptions, yet carbon isotopic fluctuations at volcanic summits are not well constrained. Here, we present carbon isotopes measured from plume samples collected at Stromboli volcano, Italy, by Unoccupied Aerial System (UAS). We found contrasting volcanic source δ13C in 2018 during quiescence (-0.36 ± 0.59 ‰) versus 10 days before the July 3rd 2019 paroxysm (-5.01 ± 0.56 ‰). During the buildup to the eruption, an influx of CO2-rich magma began degassing at deep levels (~100 MPa) in an open system fashion, causing strong isotopic fractionation and maintaining high CO2/St ratios in the gas. This influx occurred between 10 days prior to the event and up to several months beforehand, meaning that isotopic changes in the gas could be detected weeks to months before unrest.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".