A Hybrid Model of Variational Mode Decomposition and Long Short-Term Memory for Next-Hour Wind Speed Forecasting in a Hot Desert Climate
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Advancements in technology, policies, and cost reductions have led to rapid growth in wind power (WP) production. One of the major challenges in wind energy production is the instability of WP generation due to weather changes. Efficient power grid management requires accurate power output forecasting. New wind energy forecasting methods based on deep learning (DL) are delivering competitive performance versus traditional methods, like numerical weather prediction (NWP), statistical models and machine learning (ML) models. This is truer for short-term prediction. Since there is a relationship between methods, climates and forecasting complexity, forecasting methods do not always perform the same depending on the climate and terrain of the data source. This paper presents a novel model that combines the variational mode decomposition (VMD) method with a long short-term memory (LSTM) model for next-hour wind speed (WS) prediction in a hot desert climate, such as the climate in Saudi Arabia. The proposed model performance is compared to two other hybrid models, six DL models and four ML models using different feature sets. Also, the proposed model is tested on data from different climates, Caracas and Toronto. The proposed model showed a forecast skill (FS) between 61% and 74% based on mean absolute error (MAE), 64% and 72% based on root mean square error (RMSE), and 59% and 68% based on mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for locations in Saudi Arabia.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".