Tokenized Indexed-Green Bonds: Funding the Decarbonisation of Ammonia Production
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study seeks to investigate how distributed ledger technology can be applied to the green bond market. Second, this study examines how green bonds can finance the suck cost of decarbonizing the ammonia industry. Third, this study seeks to forecast the spot price of ammonia. This forecast is relevant since the bond’s coupon should be indexed and linked to the price of ammonia. The proposed tokenized indexed-green bond is a new idea that leverages the technologies of distributed ledgers, indexation, and green bonds. No study to current date has undertaken such research that integrates these technologies to fund the decarbonization of the ammonia industry. Data was collected on the spot price of ammonia from the Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago online database at the monthly frequency over the January 1991 to June 2023 period. The applied forecasting methodology was a hybrid framework combining Particle Swarm Optimization and Support Vector Regression. This study found that an out-of-sample forecast for ammonia prices would be US$438.89/ton in the 1st quarter, US$289.99/ton by the 2nd quarter, US$448.30/ton by the 3rd quarter, and US$331.57/ton by the 4th quarter. The decarbonization of the ammonia industry is technically possible. Economically, it would involve leveraging several technologies such as green bond financing, tokenization, and indexation. Received: 26 May 2023 | Revised: 1 September 2023 | Accepted: 3 December 2023 Conflicts of Interest The author declares that he has no conflicts of interest to this work. Data Availability Statement Data available on request from the corresponding author upon reasonable request. Author Contribution Statement Don Charles: Conceptualization, Methodology, Software, Validation, Formal analysis, Investigation, resources, data curation, Writing - original draft, Writing - review & editing, Visualization, Supervision, Project administration.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".