Spatial modelling of infectious diseases with covariate measurement error
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract In spatial infectious disease models, it is typical to assume that only the distance between susceptible and infectious individuals is important for modelling, but not the actual spatial locations of the individuals. Recently introduced geographically-dependent individual level models (GD-ILMs) can be used to also consider the effect of spatial locations of individuals and the distance between susceptible and infectious individuals for determining the risk of infection. In these models, it is assumed that the covariates used to predict the occurrence of disease are measured accurately. However, there are many applications in which covariates are prone to measurement error. For instance, to study risk factors for influenza, people with low socio-economic status (SES) are known to be more at risk compared to the rest of the population. However, SES is prone to measurement error. In this paper, we propose a GD-ILM which accounts for measurement error in both individual-level and area-level covariates. A Monte Carlo expectation conditional maximisation algorithm is used for inference. We use models fitted to data to predict areas with high average infectivity rates. We evaluate the performance of the proposed approach through simulation studies and by a real-data application on influenza data in Manitoba, Canada.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".