A Framework Using Federated Learning for IoT-Based Forest Fire Prediction
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Forest fires are a growing threat to human commu-nities. The Canadian Wildland Fire Information System gives realtime information to fire management agencies and the public. However, machine learning use for forest fire ignition classification prediction within the platform and ones like it, is yet to be fully realized. We propose a novel framework that uses federated machine learning combined with Internet of Things technologies, for forest fire ignition classification prediction. The framework incorporates distributed IoT weather stations deployed in an area prone to forest fires. We find comparable prediction accuracy between a federated machine learning system and a central server machine learning system. Our federated system, trained on an imbalanced dataset comprising 5,008,365 non-ignition cases and 45,411 ignition instances, has shown encouraging outcomes. It attained an Accuracy of around 0.76 and a ROC-AUC of about 0.80. The performance is on par with other systems, indicating that our approach is effective in classifying forest fire ignitions with a spatial resolution markedly superior to that of centralized systems.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".