Sea ice concentration satellite retrievals influenced by surface changes due to warm air intrusions: A case study from the MOSAiC expedition
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Warm air intrusions over Arctic sea ice can change the snow and ice surface conditions rapidly and can alter sea ice concentration (SIC) estimates derived from satellite-based microwave radiometry without altering the true SIC. Here we focus on two warm moist air intrusions during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition that reached the research vessel Polarstern in mid-April 2020. After the events, SIC deviations between different satellite products, including climate data records, were observed to increase. Especially, an underestimation of SIC for algorithms based on polarization difference was found. To examine the causes of this underestimation, we used the extensive MOSAiC snow and ice measurements to model computationally the brightness temperatures of the surface on a local scale. We further investigated the brightness temperatures observed by ground-based radiometers at frequencies 6.9 GHz, 19 GHz, and 89 GHz. We show that the drop in the retrieved SIC of some satellite products can be attributed to large-scale surface glazing, that is, the formation of a thin ice crust at the top of the snowpack, caused by the warming events. Another mechanism affecting satellite products, which are mainly based on gradient ratios of brightness temperatures, is the interplay of the changed temperature gradient in the snow with snow metamorphism. From the two analyzed climate data record products, we found that one was less affected by the warming events. The low frequency channels at 6.9 GHz were less sensitive to these snow surface changes, which could be exploited in future to obtain more accurate retrievals of sea ice concentration. Strong warm air intrusions are expected to become more frequent in future and thus their influence on SIC algorithms will increase. In order to provide consistent SIC datasets, their sensitivity to warm air intrusions needs to be addressed.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".