Estimating the population-level impacts of improved uptake of SGLT2 inhibitors in patients with chronic kidney disease: a cross-sectional observational study using routinely collected Australian primary care data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Sodium glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors reduce the risk of kidney failure and death in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) but are underused. We evaluated the number of patients with CKD in Australia that would be eligible for treatment and estimated the number of cardiorenal and kidney failure events that could be averted with improved uptake of SGLT2 inhibitors. Methods: This cross-sectional observational study leveraged nationally representative primary care data from 392 Australian general practices (MedicineInsight) between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2021. We identified patients that would have met inclusion criteria of key SGLT2 inhibitor trials and applied these data to age and sex-stratified estimates of CKD prevalence for the Australian population (using national census data), estimating the number of preventable events using trial event rates. Key outcomes included cardiorenal events (CKD progression, kidney failure, or death due to cardiovascular or kidney disease) and kidney failure. Findings: In MedicineInsight, 44.2% of adults with CKD would have met CKD eligibility criteria for an SGLT2 inhibitor; baseline use was 4.1%. Applying these data to the Australian population, 230,246 patients with CKD would have been eligible for treatment with an SGLT2 inhibitor. Optimal implementation of SGLT2 inhibitors (75% uptake) could reduce cardiorenal and kidney failure events annually in Australia by 3644 (95% CI 3526-3764) and 1312 (95% CI 1242-1385), respectively. Interpretation: Improved uptake of SGLT2 inhibitors for patients with CKD in Australia has the potential to prevent large numbers of patients experiencing CKD progression or dying due to cardiovascular or kidney disease. Identifying strategies to increase the uptake of SGLT2 inhibitors is critical to realising the population-level benefits of this drug class. Funding: University of New South Wales Scientia Program and Boehringer IngelheimEli Lilly Alliance.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".