Path-dependent selection—a bridge between natural selection and neutral selection
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Path-dependent selection follows the premise of complete symmetry in the neutral theory of selection; mutations in the natural world are entirely based on statistical randomness, lack directionality, and thus do not exhibit differences in fitness. Under specific spatiotemporal conditions, however, evolutionary positive feedback effects resulting from the specific environment will result in the breakdown of symmetry pre-assumed in neutral selection. This evolutionary positive feedback, a recursive effect, is of Lamarckian active selection or inheritance of acquired characteristics. The mutual antagonistic interactions between the positive selection of recursive effect and the passive selection under natural selection pressure of the environment in multidimensional conditions will result in evolutionary paths. Path-dependent selection proposes that the evolutionary process of organisms is a selection process based on path frequencies rather than an increase in fitness, with a strong reliance on the paths that it has taken in the past. Because of the existence of transition probabilities between different paths or within the same path (such as plasmid transfer, transposons, and function transfer in ecological interactions), path formation will exhibit acceleration or deceleration effects, explaining Gould’s principles such as punctuated equilibrium. When environmental selection pressure is weak or zero, most or all paths (like neutral selection outcomes) may be possible. The frequencies of different paths will differentiate as environmental selection increases, and the paths with higher frequencies will be more easily selected. When the evolutionary process or history has no impact on the evolution of the paths themselves (a static, equilibrium state), the path with the highest frequency is the shortest or optimal path used by evolution—a result consistent with Darwin’s theory of natural selection. Path-dependent selection, which draws inspiration from modern physics, particularly path integral methods in quantum mechanics, may provide us with a new perspective and approach to explaining the evolution of life.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.013 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.013 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.007 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".