Machine Learning Approach for Improved Longitudinal Prediction of Progression from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer’s Disease
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is cognitive decline that can indicate future risk of Alzheimer’s disease (AD). We developed and validated a machine learning algorithm (MLA), based on a gradient-boosted tree ensemble method, to analyze phenotypic data for individuals 55–88 years old (n = 493) diagnosed with MCI. Data were analyzed within multiple prediction windows and averaged to predict progression to AD within 24–48 months. The MLA outperformed the mini-mental state examination (MMSE) and three comparison models at all prediction windows on most metrics. Exceptions include sensitivity at 18 months (MLA and MMSE each achieved 0.600); and sensitivity at 30 and 42 months (MMSE marginally better). For all prediction windows, the MLA achieved AUROC ≥ 0.857 and NPV ≥ 0.800. With averaged data for the 24–48-month lookahead timeframe, the MLA outperformed MMSE on all metrics. This study demonstrates that machine learning may provide a more accurate risk assessment than the standard of care. This may facilitate care coordination, decrease healthcare expenditures, and maintain quality of life for patients at risk of progressing from MCI to AD.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".