Heatwave Duration and Heating Rate in a Non‐Stationary Climate: Spatiotemporal Pattern and Key Drivers
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Heatwaves have had adverse affects on human life, ecosystems, and society. Global warming is expected to heighten the characteristics of heatwaves such as severity, duration, and frequency. Therefore, understanding the evolution of heatwaves is a central issue in climate change research with high relevance for society. Establishing a proper threshold for issuing a heatwave can be one of the most important issues in heatwaves studies, however, fewer studies focused on characterizing and modeling a heatwave threshold according to non‐stationary behavior, local geographic and physiographic characteristics. We have developed an applicable probabilistic framework to explore the heatwave events with different durations by applying appropriate thresholds. In this study, the proposed framework was applied to define the nonstationary frequency analysis of heatwaves models to account for the temporal trend caused by climate variability and change across Iran. The results showed that shorter heatwaves odds have been intensified more over Iran while longer heatwaves have not changed substantially. We find a substantial increase in heatwave hazard across Iran with a 40‐year available daily record, collectively from 1977 to 2019. The spatial distribution of the best non‐stationary models confirms the temporal evolution of heatwaves features due to global warming over Iran.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".