‘Paleofloodscapes’: Application of sediment source fingerprinting to track flood regime change over space and time at the Peace-Athabasca Delta, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Deltas are hydrologically dynamic landscapes where river floodwaters create a mosaic of productive ecosystems that provide important services. The flood regime, however, is vulnerable to upstream anthropogenic activities, climate change and geomorphic processes. Deciphering the roles of multiple potential stressors on flood regime change is critical for developing appropriate adaptive and mitigative strategies but requires knowledge of hydrological variability at broader scales of space and time than is typically available from instrumental and observational records. At the globally recognized Peace-Athabasca Delta (Canada), the timing, magnitude and causes of reduced flooding and drawdown of perched basin water levels remain an intense focus of investigation. Here we employ novel 'paleofloodscapes', generated from geospatial interpolation of Bayesian mixing model fingerprinting of sediment elemental concentrations, to quantify variation in the delta's flood regime during the past ~140 years. Results reveal that flooding of the delta began to decline several decades before hydroelectric regulation of Peace River flow, not coincident with it, and the influence of floodwaters from the unregulated Athabasca River has declined more than the regulated Peace River. A key discovery is that widespread flooding of perched basins occurs when ice-jam events on the river(s) coincide with a relatively high water-plane in the delta's open-drainage network. Without knowledge of open-drainage water levels, inferred change to the flood regime of perched basins may be inaccurate when derived solely from analyses of Peace River hydrometric data and climatic records. The paleofloodscapes illustrate that rising sediment delivery caused by a natural river avulsion in 1982 may undermine the intended purpose of a proposed weir installation. The most recent paleofloodscape, developed from lake surface sediment sampling shortly after widespread flooding, demonstrates the value of the approach as a landscape hydrological monitoring tool, and is readily transferrable to other floodplains to track flood regime change.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".