Neutral Tropical African CO <sub>2</sub> Exchange Estimated From Aircraft and Satellite Observations
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Tropical lands play an important role in the global carbon cycle yet their contribution remains uncertain owing to sparse observations. Satellite observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) have greatly increased spatial coverage over tropical regions, providing the potential for improved estimates of terrestrial fluxes. Despite this advancement, the spread among satellite‐based and in‐situ atmospheric CO 2 flux inversions over northern tropical Africa (NTA), spanning 0–24°N, remains large. Satellite‐based estimates of an annual source of 0.8–1.45 PgC yr −1 challenge our understanding of tropical and global carbon cycling. Here, we compare posterior mole fractions from the suite of inversions participating in the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO‐2) Version 10 Model Intercomparison Project (v10 MIP) with independent in‐situ airborne observations made over the tropical Atlantic Ocean by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission during four seasons. We develop emergent constraints on tropical African CO 2 fluxes using flux‐concentration relationships defined by the model suite. We find an annual flux of 0.14 ± 0.39 PgC yr −1 (mean and standard deviation) for NTA, 2016–2018. The satellite‐based flux bias suggests a potential positive concentration bias in OCO‐2 B10 and earlier version retrievals over land in NTA during the dry season. Nevertheless, the OCO‐2 observations provide improved flux estimates relative to the in situ observing network at other times of year, indicating stronger uptake in NTA during the wet season than the in‐situ inversion estimates.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".